Thursday, January 31, 2008 - 2:32 PM CST Austin economy spanks the competition Austin Business Journal
High-tech, a booming film industry and the University of Texas all helped propel Austin to the top of Forbes' 2008 list of America's Fastest Growing Metros.
The magazine ranked Austin No. 1 among the nation's 100 largest metropolitan areas. The list sorted cities by their anticipated gross domestic product growth between 2007 and 2012. Austin's GMP, or the value of goods and services produced in the area, is expected to climb 32 percent over the five-year period.
Forbes credits the local boom to high-tech employers like Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) and IBM (NYSE: IBM) as well as the University of Texas, which is producing ample engineering talent.
Other cities that ranked high on the list include Atlanta, Seattle, Orlando, Houston and San Jose, Calif. The Forbes article points out that all of those cities share several key characteristics with Austin: They are tech hubs in close proximity to universities with growing population bases.
Forbes used GMP forecasts provided by Moody's Economy.com.
The regions of the country with the fastest growing metro areas overall are the Southeast and West. Forbes credits the lower costs of living and doing business in those areas for their higher anticipated performance.
by Danielle Babb Thursday, January 24, 2008provided by
Whether you're looking for an investment property or a place to live, here's a look at the cities you should seek out and avoid in 2008.
The housing crunch and the excessive inventory -- exceeding 10 months on resale homes -- continues to take its toll on housing prices. But over the long term, housing is still a good investment. In fact, it's more than an investment; it's a home. Plus, you're not really saving anything by renting, as the costs of renting and owning are about equal (well, owning may be a little more). The tax benefits of home ownership far outweigh renting, too. With good housing prices in many great areas, this may indeed be the time to buy.
So now that I've convinced you this is a good time to buy a home, the next question is, Where do you buy one? No matter where you look, you should check out some basic economic fundamentals before buying. Is job growth stable in the area? Is income keeping up with inflation? Is crime above the national average? Is there a higher-than-average rate of foreclosures? These issues and others play a factor when deciding where to buy a house.
As a real estate investor and analyst, it's my job to provide buyers with qualified information on where to buy -- and where to stay away from. Here are my thoughts for 2008 based on the indicators noted above.
The Top Places to Buy
Whether you're an investor like me or you're looking to purchase that next move up, here are my picks for the best areas to buy a home:
Killeen, Round Rock, Austin, Texas: Killeen has the lowest average home price in any market in the nation while still maintaining quality. Round Rock and Austin have seen incredible job growth and very stable home prices despite the downturn nationwide. Jobs continue to grow here -- a factor for keeping inventory low and prices stable.
Mission Viejo, California: Mission Viejo has the lowest crime statistics in the nation. With no murders in 2007 and a low rate of violent crime, this is a good place to raise a family. Prices are relatively stable, and the job market in the nearby cities of Irvine and San Diego means there is consistent demand from job seekers.
Palm Beach, Florida: I'm taking a risk here because this area has been pummeled by foreclosures in 2007. But there are also a lot of boomers retiring, and Palm Beach is looking mighty attractive. If you don't like this high of a risk (which translates to great prices), check out Tampa or Clearwater in the same state.
Las Vegas, Nevada: Yes, Las Vegas has been hit hard by incoming investors, who watched their home values disappear and then left those homes empty. Las Vegas comes in quite high on the national foreclosure list, almost always within the top three metro areas. But there's an upside -- a very strong job market. In 2007, Las Vegas experienced a 12 percent increase in population, partly driven by retirees looking for Sunbelt states to move to. Coupled with low prices, we could see inventories reduced here, which would also stabilize prices. Be careful what you buy, but I like it.
Places to Avoid
And now for the places you definitely want to avoid:
Detroit, Michigan: The job market is in chaos. People are getting laid off left and right. National statistics seem to point to a significant problem with job loss and job income not keeping up with inflation. As a result, many nice neighborhoods are now abandoned due to people leaving their homes. Inventories exceed one year (under six months is what we want to see), and the foreclosure problem hit Detroit hard. With fewer jobs to support home purchases, I don't see Detroit turning around anytime soon.
Miami, Florida: Palm Beach is different than Miami, which sits in its gorgeous aqua water with half-built and abandoned condos, a shrinking job market, a tough time getting insurance against hurricanes and a job problem. Yes, you can get a good deal, but do this only if you don't need the appreciation from the home in the next decade.
Riverside/San Bernardino, California: Even those lucky homeowners that bought before the boom are feeling it now. Riverside and San Bernardino counties in Southern California consistently lead California in foreclosures and rank in the top three metro areas nationally. The prices have plummeted, and jobs in the area are scarce. People moved there due to lack of affordability in Orange and Los Angeles counties (where their jobs were), so it's a commuter's area. Now that prices in the two counties have dropped, people can live close to their jobs. Although I grew up in Riverside County, I could never recommend it to anyone looking to buy a home.
News Release No. 21, June 2007 By Bryan Pope, Associate Editor
COLLEGE STATION (Real Estate Center) – According to recent figures from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, home prices in Texas increased 6.9 percent during first quarter 2007, well above the 4.3 percent national average.
“Despite the national slowdown, Texas is still strong,” said Dr. James Gaines, research economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. “There’s no reason prices shouldn't continue to rise despite the increase in foreclosures and the slowdown in transactions, construction and new home starts.”
By comparison, home appreciation slowed to 1.2 percent in California and 3 percent in New York. Nevada price increases virtually disappeared at just .6 percent. Even rapidly growing Florida and Arizona reported value increases of 4.3 percent and 5.2 percent, respectively.
Within Texas, there is a wide variation in appreciation rates in the 25 metropolitan areas. Combined with low interest rates, strong job growth and limited supply on new housing in many markets, Gaines says some of the appreciation rates are astounding.
“Among the state’s large metro areas, Austin and San Antonio are seeing the strongest rate increases at more than 10 percent,” he said. “With low levels of inventory and building permits off by over 20 percent in each community, it’s easy to see why these two markets are humming.”
Meanwhile, the energy industry is fueling strong housing markets in some smaller metros. Home prices are up more than 21 percent in Midland and 16 percent in Odessa. Victoria prices are up 8.3 percent.
Gaines said some border communities are on fire as well, thanks to a surge in government hiring and business activity. Laredo is up 16.6 percent, while El Paso is up 11.2 percent.
While Texas seems to be bucking the national trends in home price appreciation, the Lone Star State shares the national phenomenon of increasing foreclosure rates.
“Texas is no longer making headlines as having the most foreclosures in the country,” Gaines said, “but rising foreclosures is still a source of concern for all industries related to the housing market.”
The Real Estate Center (recenter.tamu.edu) has been providing solutions through research for 35 years. Funded primarily by Texas real estate licensee fees, the Center was created by the state legislature to meet the needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers and the general public.
RAY SUAREZ: Mark Dotzour, how does Texas resemble what you just heard from Massachusetts and California? And how does it resemble the nationwide trends?
MARK DOTZOUR, Texas A&M University: Hello, Ray. It's good to visit with you. We down here in Texas we have a real, unique situation going on right now. We've got a combination of very strong job growth. It's basically double the national average. We've got home price appreciation that's going up at an increasing rate in many of our metropolitan areas.
And at the same time, we've got population growth. I noticed just last year we had 570,000 new people come into the state of Texas. And at the same time, the home builders have cut back on production, as well, like you've previously heard. And so we're in kind of an interesting position, where home builders are cutting back on their building, but inventory levels of homes for sale are quite low. And that's why we're seeing the good rates of price appreciation in many parts of Texas.
RAY SUAREZ: And let's finally stop in Michigan. Donald Grimes, how's the scene there?
DONALD GRIMES, University of Michigan: Well, you described the national housing market as grim. And if it's grim nationally, it's doubly grim in Michigan. The housing market in Michigan is in very, very bad shape and, unlike the rest of the states that you have talked to and mentioned, the problem in the housing market in Michigan stems from a very weak economy, a weak economy that has lost jobs in each of the last six years, and last year Michigan's population actually declined.
So the weak housing market results from a weak economy. It's not a cause of the weak economy. And in order for Michigan's housing market to recover, the local economy has to recover or at least stop falling.
